BTC Price Speculation 101

Bitcoin value going up fast!

How hIgh can Bitcoin go?

Wow, we’re up to $40.70 right now! Just yesterday I was psyched about what, $36.50? No one can deny the BTC is growing by leaps and bounds. But where’s the ceiling, you might ask?

I like to consider myself a person who studies the motives behind everything. The “whys” were always far more important to me than the hows and whens and wheres, because the why always drives every action in a somewhat predictable direction.

Stock charts are a common place to see this effect demonstrated. If Apple leaks a rumor of a new, must-have, ‘killer’ feature on their next iWhatever, then you always know it’s a good day to own apple stock… AAPL’s price is going UP, not down, on such days.

Bitcoin’s price is even more speculative than a common stock, however. There are many driving influences, both internal & external, and no one person could possibly know them all. For instance, there was a long period earlier this year when the value of the Euro was falling, but most American speculators had no idea where the constant growth in Bitcoin’s price was going so steadily up; The USD wasn’t tanking at that time, so if they weren’t following the Euro too then they’d have no clue that people in Europe were looking for a safehaven to put their earnings in as the Euro starts to look worse and worse.

But this was only one of many positive drivers going on for the coin at that time. 2012 was an election year in the US, and the Libertarian Ron Paul movement was gaining HUGE traction nationwide. It was a much larger movement than any mainstream news programs would even begin to let the public know about… Each and every one of his republican competitors’ Romney’s crowds all year long were only a mere fraction of the size of the Ron Paul crowd that same day, and predictably the news channels would never show us any footage of a Ron Paul crowd, instead repeating the mantra: “But Paul is still unelectable.” It was sickening and heartbreaking for anyone paying attention, even if you didn’t like his policies.

At any rate, far more libertarians were made in 2012 than all other years in american history put together. Youtube videos & blogs about Austrian Economics and the real problems with the US economy started becoming so commonplace that it’s hard to navigate the web at all nowadays without running across one.

This is especially good news for us because libertarians LOVE bitcoin. The moment any of them figure out how the bitcoin system works, they immediately see it’s potential to end the 100-year-old stranglehold the federal reserve has on our freedom; The one Ron Paul himself has dedicated so much time and effort to educate us all about.

In fact, if you go to the Daily Paul website today, (months after Paul himself has left politics for good) you still will find daily discussions about Bitcoin and many libertarian ideas that directly surround it.

Sure, some people don’t fully understand bitcoin yet and ask many noob questions about its’ safety, but overall the general libertarian population is very pro-bitcoin, and serves to keep the word out about bitcoin across the country in massive numbers.

I really can’t stress enough how large this group of people is. This isn’t the time or place to make the case for them, (there are actually several documentaries on that subject) but I firmly believe that Libertarians now outnumber the mainstream, ‘old-school’ republicans. We’re talking about tens of millions of americans.

That’s a whoooole lot of bitcoin-friendly Americans. Sadly, they just don’t know this fact themselves yet; they have no clue that they are so numerous! Each one only knows of a few others but is still propagandized by the mainstream news that bitcoin is just for druggies and blackmarketeers… How could they possibly know how strong their own numbers are?

The price of BTC would be one excellent indication. As it rises to new lofty heights they’ll be forced to see that even more libertarian-minded people are out there using it than they thought.

So the more Obomba bombs, the more senators and state politicians try to take our guns away, and most especially the more Bernanke prints with reckless abandon; the more you are going to see the BTC price rise.

So that’s the main driver I see behind BTC’s growth, but certainly not the only one. Other governments, notably Argentina and all of the PIGS in Europe, are driving constant streams of their citizens to bitcoin as well with their armageddon-esque monetary policies.

Internally, I see nothing but awesome news on the development side, too. The new ASIC mining technology is rolling out now from multiple companies and I’m going to grab some of that myself since it represents such a huge leap forward in mining power. Meanwhile, many inventive technologies can be seen popping up every single day in our industry that clearly show there is a huge amount of entrepreneurs and coders behind bitcoin; Uncountable hoards of people working hard to make Bitcoin catch on by making it easier for us all to use.

What’s working against bitcoin, you might ask? Only ignorance, as far as I can see. Sure the governments of the world might be plotting an attack against the bitcoin system, but we simply aren’t that big a threat to them yet. Perhaps once we cross the $1,000/BTC line will we get on their radar, because at that time we’d represent enough of a percentage of the wealth in the economy for them to want to come after us. BTC would simply have to grow that large for enough money to be taken out of USD to make that happen. (And that’s assuming mostly all of BTC is coming from USA, and not other countries. Which it clearly is.)

My prediction: $100/BTC sometime early this year, and possibly $1,000 in the next year or two before the party faces some serious problem. This again assumes that the US government doesn’t have a sudden change of heart about it’s horrible, destructive monetary policies.

Others have speculated, based upon sound math I might add, that Bitcoin’s total market cap can get up to between $100,000 and $1,000,000 per bitcoin if it just grabs between 1% & 10% of the world trade volume. Technically, the only thing standing in its’ way is government policy, so we just have to wait and see on that one how far the states are willing to go to stop it.

Remember, educated investors just don’t have many other places to put our money anymore… Gold has been confiscated by the US Government before, and it’s starting to look like they’ll do it again. Bitcoin, or at least anonymous, untraceable money, has become completely, utterly necessary.


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